Fuel theft soars, pumps stay slow to cut prices, and now a duty freeze fight begins

Fuel theft climbs as prices bite at the pump

UK drivers have stolen almost £200,000 of fuel from petrol stations on average every day since the Iran war broke out, according to industry analysis from fuel theft prevention company Forecourt Eye, reported by the BBC. Incidents of drive-offs and non-payment have risen by a fifth in the five months since 28 February, and the value of stolen fuel is estimated to have jumped 48% to a daily average of £194,000.

Based on a representative sample of 550 forecourts extrapolated across the UK's 8,359 stations, Forecourt Eye put the volume of stolen fuel at 108,900 litres a day, up from 87,000 (a 24% rise), with daily incidents up from around 2,400 to 2,872. The company also reported a rise in "abuse, intimidation and violence from frustrated customers," and said it would offer free access to facial-recognition crime-reporting technology from Facewatch to more than 2,000 retailers from the autumn.

Shailesh Parekh, who owns six forecourts under the Midlands Motor Fuels banner, told the BBC he had "more CCTV cameras than Birmingham airport" per square foot, but "that doesn't help because people don't care." He said thefts were happening almost every day, with thieves increasingly filling extra cans as well as their tanks. He estimated fuel theft cost him around £40,000 in his last financial year, a figure he expects to rise given this year's price spikes.

The backdrop is the price spike itself: petrol peaked in April, eased after the US and Iran agreed a framework deal in June, then climbed again once peace talks collapsed. Last week it hit a new post-conflict high, and the highest level since 2022. Chancellor John Healey has said he's "watching closely" for signs drivers are being "taken for a ride at the pump," though he told the Sunday Telegraph there's no significant evidence of price gouging so far. The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) reached the same conclusion in May, while confirming it's still investigating why margins rose between February and March at two supermarkets and three non-supermarket retailers.

Watchdog says some pumps are still slow to pass on savings

That scrutiny continued in the CMA's latest quarterly fuel market update, which found that a majority of retailers are still relying on "passive pricing strategies" that keep margins high, and that some stations did not immediately pass on falling wholesale diesel prices to drivers between May and June. Overall pump prices did fall in June, the CMA said, but they remained well above pre-conflict levels, with retailer margins at or above the historically high levels seen in 2025, and no evidence found of outright profiteering.

The regulator also revealed it has sent 1,166 warning letters and 53 compliance notices since April to retailers failing to register with the government-run Fuel Finder price comparison scheme, though no fines have been issued yet. Around 97% of UK petrol stations, accounting for roughly 99% of fuel sold, are now registered. A more detailed review of the road fuel market is planned for the autumn.

CMA chief executive Sarah Cardell said the watchdog would "continue to monitor prices and margins closely and expect any reductions in wholesale prices to be rapidly and fully passed on to drivers." A Department for Energy Security & Net Zero spokesperson said Fuel Finder, created after a 2023 CMA recommendation found drivers had paid nearly £1bn more at supermarkets in a single year due to weakened competition, now saves households who own a car around £40 a year.

Retailers now want October's duty freeze made permanent

Against that backdrop, the Petrol Retailers Association (PRA) has written to Chancellor Healey asking him to make the current 5p-per-litre fuel duty discount permanent in the Budget on 28 October, according to Forecourt Trader. The discount, introduced in 2022 in response to fuel costs following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, has been rolled over through successive budgets. A planned September rise was already postponed in May because of the Iran tensions, but increases of 3p per litre in January and 2p per litre in March are still on the books.

The PRA wants both cancelled and duty frozen for good at 52.95p, arguing this would lower transport costs, ease inflation and support household budgets. Alongside the ask, the PRA and the Car Wash Association are also pushing the Chancellor to extend business rates relief (currently offered to pubs and venues) to retail more broadly, and to introduce a mandatory national register for hand car washes, an unregulated sector the PRA estimates is worth over £1bn a year and could generate up to £475m in tax revenue if properly regulated.

Whether the Treasury agrees will become clear at the Budget in just over seven weeks.