Are fuel prices rising or falling?
UK petrol prices are currently broadly stable week on week. The national average for unleaded stands at 159.4p per litre, with diesel at 183.9p. Below is the 90-day trend and the key factors that tend to push prices in either direction.
The 90-day trend
What drives price direction
UK pump prices are influenced by several interconnected factors, none of which operates in isolation. Crude oil is the most significant underlying input. Brent crude (the international benchmark used to price North Sea oil) is denominated in US dollars and traded on global commodity markets. When crude rises, so does the wholesale cost of refined petrol and diesel, and pump prices eventually follow. When crude falls, the benefit passes through to consumers, though typically more slowly.
The sterling/dollar exchange rate amplifies or cushions oil price movements for UK consumers. A weaker pound raises the effective cost of oil imports even when the dollar price of crude is unchanged. A stronger pound provides the opposite buffer. This is why UK fuel prices can diverge from the direction of crude oil markets in the short term.
Refinery margins (the spread between the cost of crude oil and the value of the refined products it yields) also affect wholesale prices. Refinery margins expand when demand for refined products outpaces refining capacity, as happened in 2022 when European refinery capacity was constrained following the Russian gas crisis. Tighter refining margins mean cheaper fuel; wider margins push wholesale costs up regardless of crude.
Seasonal demand plays a more predictable role. UK summer driving season (June to August) typically increases demand for petrol. Winter increases diesel demand for heating oil and HGV use. These seasonal patterns create modest but consistent upward pressure at their respective peaks. UK government taxation (fuel duty at 52.95p/litre plus 20% VAT) forms a fixed floor on prices that does not change with market conditions unless the government chooses to intervene.
What to watch for next
- Crude oil benchmark (Brent): the primary lead indicator. A sustained move of more than $5/barrel in either direction will typically show up at UK pumps within 2–4 weeks.
- GBP/USD exchange rate: a weaker pound raises the cost of dollar-denominated oil imports. Monitor during periods of economic uncertainty or significant Bank of England policy changes.
- Refinery outages: unplanned refinery maintenance or capacity constraints in Northwest Europe (where much UK fuel is refined) can spike wholesale costs independently of crude prices.
- OPEC+ production decisions: the cartel's output quotas have a direct effect on global crude supply. Production cuts tend to raise prices; supply increases tend to lower them, though the effect takes weeks to flow through.
- UK government policy: fuel duty changes require a Budget or Autumn Statement. The duty freeze (in place since 2022) is reviewed annually. Any change would immediately alter the price floor.
When prices are clearly falling week on week, smaller more frequent top-ups make more sense than filling completely. When prices are rising and likely to continue, topping up fully now locks in a lower price. The caveat: forecasting fuel price direction is unreliable beyond a week or two, and the saving on a typical tank is rarely more than £3–5 either way. Choosing the right station matters more than timing.